Global box office will reach $33bn in 2025, a bounce-back from the expected slight downturn of 2024, according to predicitons from Gower Street
Global box office will reach $33bn in 2025, a bounce-back from the expected slight downturn of 2024, according to predicitons from Gower Street Analytics, the UK-based film data and insights specialist.
It estimated 2025 will finish approximately 8% ahead of the estimated full-year 2024 result of around $30.5bn.
The 2025 global projection would put the year down 14% against the average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) at historic exchange rates. It is also 3% behind 2023’s full-year result ($33.9bn), though if re-calculated using current exchange rates, the 2025 projection would sit 1% ahead of 2023.
The North America box office is projected to finish 9% up on 2024 at approximately $9.7bn. This is down 16% against the 2017-2019 average but 6% ahead of 2023.
“Product availability is only part of the equation,” said Dimitrios Mitsinikos, CEO of Gower Street. ”A strengthening dollar may hinder international box office growth, compounded by evolving socio- economic and political factors that have shaped the box office in recent years.”
Gower Street predicted the international market (excluding China) is predicted to finish 7% ahead of 2024 at around $16.8bn. This is down 12% against the 2017-19 average and down 2% against 2023 at historical exchange rates (though up 4% when adjusted to current exchange rates).
Europe, the Middle East and Africa is predicted as being up 6% on 2024, but down 9% on the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average. Asia Pacific, excluding China, is estimated as up 8% on 2024, at $5.3bn, but down by 18% on 2017-19. Latin America is expected to be up 7% on last year at $2.4bn, but down 5% on 2017-19.
Increasingly less reliant on Hollywood fare, China is conservatively estimated at $6.6bn (up 9% vs 2024). However, due to the constrained release calendar at this stage it remains the toughest market to predict.
Tentpole films to be released in 2025 include Avatar: Fire And Ash; Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning; Wicked: For Good; Jurassic World Rebirth; John Wick: Chapter 5; Zootopia 2; and Superman.
Gower Street’s chief analyst Thomas Beranek anticipated 2026 will be a “breakout year” with the release schedule including offerings from major franchises including Avengers, Spider- Man, Super Mario Bros, Star Wars, Toy Story, Shrek, Ice Age, Jumanji, Moana and Batman, plus a novel Christopher Nolan film.
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