‘Tron: Ares’ Box Office Grid Dims To $33M+ Opening – Sunday Update

SUNDAY AM: With an MLB playoff game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, and 12 NFL games today, Disney‘s Tron: Ares isn’t popping a wheelie this weekend, slowing down to a $33.5M 3-day, and $60.5M global debut. Originally, it was expected that the Jared Leto movie would clear $40M-$45M domestic, $80M-$90M global.

Essentially, the audience didn’t expand on this 43-year venerable Disney sci-fi franchise to the young-ins, with only 30% under 25 attending. That said, people chose to see the movie in a premium format with 67% coming from PLF screens, Imax, 3D, ScreenX or DBox. The 3D theaters alone yielded 31%. Imax at $6.6M delivered 20%. Disney has Imax for another week on the movie, and 3D for the entire run.

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Warner Bros.

As we told you yesterday, this is a déjà vu of Blade Runner 2049 all over again, which had a similar budget to Tron: Ares ($180M), exact same Indigenous People’s holiday release date, same $40M forecast and under-delivery stateside with a $32.7M debut. 4-day on Blade Runner 2049 was $37.2M with a $4.4M Monday. While Tron: Ares received a B+, Blade Runner 2049 landed an A- (in the CinemaScore books sometimes they consider an A-/B+ as the same grade with a similar multiple factor). That score pushed Blade Runner 2049 to a 2.8x multiple for a final domestic of $92M and global of $277.9M; numbers which didn’t scream sequel.

In 2010, Tron: Legacy‘s $400M global take and $44M domestic opening was considered an alright, though not slam-dunk success. Hence the prompt skittishness in regards to rushing a sequel out. The project lingered in development for over a decade, but what excited Disney was the potential prescience of the Jesse Wigutow penned project’s concept: A.I. in the real world, and life outside the grid. It was a swing worth taking.

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Disney didn’t spare any nippy on this movie with a marketing campaign that highlighted the twist of this story: programs and Lightcycles breaking into our world. With a first glimpse of the movie at August 2024’s D23, the studio’s campaign included integrating Lightcycles at live events, i.e. SuperMotocross World Championship, and MLB, NHL, and MLS partnerships with the New York Yankees, Washington Capitals, and Houston Dynamos. There were community-oriented pop-up events like Night Ride Experiences with influencers, LED bike outfitting and exclusive photo-opps and the NYC Lightcycle spin class event that brought the grid into our reality. Adidas, Razer, Mod Pizza, Asus computers, McAfee were promo partners. The NIN song “As Alive As You Need Me To Be” was added as a Fortnite Jam Track, along with a custom suite of inspired-by cosmetics was added to the game including a Hero Outfit + Helmet Visor, and accessories. Minecraft + Discord platforms launched themed features for users to apply to characters and profiles inspired by the movie’s visual motifs.

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Among some of the custom integrations there was a team-up with the NFL opener and MrBeast. Saquon Barkley (of the Eagles) raced to the NFL Opening Game on a Lightcycle to Lincoln Financial Fiel where he handed off the Lightcycle to MrBeast (443M subscribers), who sped off to the next game in São Paulo, continuing the narrative through additional custom spots. Activations were amplified across social platforms by NBC Sports, SNFonNBC, Saquon Barkley, the NFL, Disney Studios, and MrBeast. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) and Derrick Henry (Ravens) rode Lightcycles through the stadium for Monday Night Football. On Dancing With the Stars,“Alive As You Need Me To Be” lit up “Disney Night” with a Lightcycle on the dance floor during a custom dance bumper.

Despite the flash and pizzaz, audiences clearly don’t believe there was enough reason to head to Ares.

Paramount’s Roofman is holding in at an $8M opening. For Paramount, the Miramax movie is a sophisticated adult play. The hope is more come out. Channing Tatum’s 2017 NASCAR heist title Lucky Logan from Steven Soderbergh opened to $7.6M and ended its run at $27.7M.

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Overall weekend is coming in at an estimated $72M, $1M less than the same 3-day weekend a year ago when Terrifier 3 surprised with an $18.9M opening on a marketing budget built on pure oxygen (meaning they reached out directly to the Cineverse universe). Comscore reports that the fall 2025 box office between post Labor Day and today stands at $770.7M, even with last autumn.

1. Tron: Ares (Dis) 4000 theaters, Fri $14.3M, Sat $11M Sun $8.2M 3-day $33.5M/Wk 1
2. Roofman (Par) 3,362 theaters, Fri $3.2M, Sat $2.8M Sun $1.9M 3-day $8M/Wk 1
3. One Battle After Another (WB) 3,127 (-507) theaters, Fri $2M (-41%) Sat $2.8M Sun $1.8M, 3-day $6.675M (-39%), Total $54.5M/Wk 3
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie (Uni) 3,049 (-458) theaters, Fri $920K (-25%) Sat $1.35M Sun $1.08M 3-day $3.35M (-37%), Total $26.4M/Wk 3
5. Soul on Fire (Sony) 1,720 theaters, Fri $1.3M Sat $900K Sun $790K 3-day $3M/Wk 1
6. The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL) 2,334 (-419) theaters, Fri $855K (-27%) Sat $1.3M Sun $780K 3-day $2.9M (-29%),Total $172.4M/Wk 6
7. Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle (Sony) 1,834 (-713) theaters, Fri $585K (-33%), Sat $930K Sun $735K 3-day $2.25M (-36%), Total $128.6M/Wk 5
8. The Smashing Machine (A24) 3,321 (-24) theaters, Fri $545K (-80%), Sat $676K Sun $574K 3-day $1.79M (-69%), Total $9.7M/Wk 2
9. Strangers: Chapter 2 (LG) 1,878 (-812) theaters, Fri $465K (-46%), Sat $665K Sun $420K 3-day $1.55M (-45%), Total $13.4M/Wk 3
10. Good Boy (IFC) 1,650 theaters, Fri $418K Sat $567K Sun $374K, 3-day $1.36M (-36%), Total $4.8M/Wk 2

SATURDAY AM: The long-term lasting impact from Covid thwarting moviegoing is easily felt this weekend as two movies, one a $180M sci-fi franchise reboot in Tron: Ares, and the other a star-studded caper with a hunky leading man, Roofman, are coming in under their estimates respectively with $35M-$37M and $8M.

Impact meaning: audience moviegoing habits have truly changed with consumers more than ever weighing their wallets against what’s worth the FOMO.

For Tron: Ares, it’s a start that’s under the previous installment, Tron: Legacy ($44M) 15 years ago, and that’s not good. Tron: Ares gets a B+ CinemaScore the same as Tron: Legacy — why rush out? The word isn’t out that this movie is better than the last despite turning a novel leaf with a novel conceit (the videogame grid guys are in are world now, AI style). Definite recommend at 57% in Screen Engine/Comscore PostTrak is alright, not ecstatic.

Tron: Ares was looked upon as the movie that would get the fall box office going in some capacity. No one was expecting that Conjuring: Last Rites would be that film, which remains this season’s top opener at $84M, nor was it Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, this fall’s second best start at $70M). Disney gave it their all with this hoped-upon tentpole with San Diego Comic-Con neon stunts, a Nine Inch Nails concert the other night at the premiere, etc.

Why isn’t Tron: Ares brighter? Is it because of Jared Leto and the tabloid headlines he generated in the last year? Disney disregarded that noise and boldly trotted him out at SDCC, as well as other functions, strategically positioning the Oscar winner for press. He’s not the chief reason why most people went to see the movie in PostTrak audience exits at 14%. Those who bought tickets came because it’s a Tron movie (47%), because it’s sci-fi (41%) and the nippy VFX (33%).

Some of what’s going on here as to do with the limitations of sci-fi at the box office. While there are amazing instances of Avatar ($77M), there’s something of a ceiling with the genre outside of Star Wars and some Star Trek movies. What’s happening here with Tron: Ares isn’t different from what occurred with another high-hope, pricey starring sci-fi franchise reboot, 2017’s Blade Runner: 2049 at $32.7M, which came in below its expectations (that had its own franchise mythology mishaps in the marketing; the assumption being the audience for the IP was bigger than it was. Also, that campaign hid more than it needed to, out of fear of spoilage, which would up being to its detriment). We can also add in Furiosa as an underperforming comp at $26.3M.

The original Tron was a bomb at the summer box office back in 1982, grossing around $29M in a season dominated by E.T. which made north of $359M in its first go-round by comparison. However, the guy getting stuck in a videogame movie found a following in its home afterlife which led to its 2010 reboot. Funny thing is that Tron: Legacy in all its Disney brand awareness opened a year after the original Avatar (again, $77M opening, gigantic for an original movie back in 2009), and in and of itself at the time as a Christmas tentpole was also perceived as underwhelming in its $44M opening. The soundtrack by Daft Punk was a huge hit. There’s a cap here too in the popularity of Tron, which explains why Disney didn’t just rush another movie out soon after the previous one. They took their time in hopes of one-upping the last. That’s not happening.

RelishMix saw the less-than-vibrant reaction to Tron: Ares ahead of time: social media reach across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter was 26% behind other sci-fi movies with 281M. That reach was below Dune: Part Two (575M) and Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (891M). “Jared Leto has been vigorously promoting the movie on his TikTok channel,” says RelishMix. The media analytics corp observed that “some accuse the story of recycling, with notes that it feels like ‘a Force Awakens-style soft reboot.’ Critiques also cut to tone and visual execution: ‘Totally wrong, just a big dumb action movie’ with others comparing it unfavorably to the artistry of Blade Runner 2049 or the freshness of Ghost in the Shell.”

Kids under 12 were also not over-the-top by PostTrak standards with 85% positive and 52% must-see right away for Tron: Ares. Those exit scores are usually higher on a movie like this. Male leaning at 68%, 18-34 turnout at 52%, with the IP’s core GenX audience (over 45) only showing up at 25%. Diverse audiences shows 49% Caucasian, 23% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black and 11% Asian American. PLFs and Imax are driving 55% of the weekend with a massive turnout in the West. Disney’s El Capitan in Hollywood was the best venue at $105k.

At $8M, Roofman is in the range of other Tatum auteur-driven indie-fare, read Lucky Logan ($7.6M), The Eagle ($8.7M) and Haywire ($8.4M). The Paramount/Miramax movie was made for economical at a net $19M (not net $50M like the Dwayne Johnson original Smashing Machine) and director Derek Cianfrance has spoken about how tough it was to get the feature off the ground. It’s not edgy like the director’s other movies, i.e. the Ryan Gosling titles Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines, but retro in a 1990s romcom type of way. “I don’t know why he’s called the Roofman,” commented one studio exec about the billboards and one sheets of a sunglass, teddy bear and tube floatie wearing Tatum.

The movie gets a B+. The Tatum female followers who were over 25 did show some at 38%, but overall demo was guys at 53%. It’s a small-scale date movie in regards to the grosses and 41% showing up with a partner, spouse, girlfriend and boyfriend. Diversity demos were 55% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian American and 8% Native American. Some PLFs, with play in the East, South and Midwest. AMC Burbank was the pic’s top grossing location with close to $12K so far.

Also not doing so heated at 1,330 theaters is Roadside Attractions/LD Entertainment’s release of Bill Condon’s feature take of Broadway musical, Kiss of the Spiderwoman, with $1M for a per theater of, yikes, $767.

Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt went out in six NYC and LA locations with $87K yesterday, $152K for the weekend and a $25K per theater. Solid numbers with AMC Lincoln Square leading the way. The Julia Roberts-Andrew Garfield-Ayo Edebiri didn’t get good reviews at 44% in the wake of its Venice Film Festival world premiere.

Top 10:

1. Tron: Ares (Dis) 4000 theaters, Fri $14.3M, 3-day $35M-$37M/Wk 1
2. Roofman (Par) 3,362 theaters, Fri $3.2M, 3-day $8M/Wk 1
3. One Battle After Another (WB) 3,127 (-507) theaters, Fri $2M (-41%), 3-day $6.7M (-39%), Total $54.5M/Wk 3
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse (Uni) 3,049 (-458) theaters, Fri $920K (-25%), 3-day $3.7M (-30%), Total $26.7M/Wk 3
5. The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL) 2,334 (-419) theaters, Fri $850K (-27%) 3-day $3.1M (-26%),Total $172.5M/Wk 6
6. Soul on Fire (Sony) 1,720 theaters, Fri $1.3M 3-day $3M/Wk 1
7. Demon Slayer…Infinity Castle (Sony) 1,834 (-713) theaters, Fri $585K (-33%), 3-day $2.2M (-36%), Total $128.6M/Wk 5

8. The Smashing Machine (A24) 3,321 (-24) theaters, Fri $545K (-80%), 3-day $1.8M (-69%), Total $9.8M/Wk 2

9. Strangers: Chapter 2 (LG) 1,878 (-812) theaters, Fri $465K (-46%), 3-day $1.5M (-46%), Total $13.2M/Wk 3

10. Good Boy (IFC) 1,650 theaters, Fri $431K (-56%), 3-day $1.5M (-36%), Total $4.8M/Wk 2

FRIDAY PM: Disney’s Tron: Ares is looking at $15M today, now set for a 3-day in the mid-to-high $30 million range at 4,000 theaters. It will take a very gigantic Saturday and Sunday to put the Jared Leto movie back in the $40M range.

Here’s some upside: It’s Indigenous People’s Day weekend, hence a 4-day stretch. If MLB and NFL steal the guys away Sunday, here’s to hoping they find the movie on Monday. Comscore reports that 45% of K-12 schools are off Monday along with another 22% colleges.

Currently, No. 2 is between Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another and Paramount/Miramax’s Roofman, each with about $7M-$7.5M. Roofman is booked at 3,362 while One Battle After Another has 3,127 theaters in its third weekend. On the high end for the Paul Thomas Anderson directed-Leonardo DiCaprio starring movie, that’s a -32% ease from its second weekend. Running total by Sunday could stand at $55.3M, which would be +6% ahead of DiCaprio’s Killers of the Flower Moon at the same 17-day mark.

Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse is fourth at 3,039 sites with a Friday of $1M, third weekend of $4.2M, -21%, and a running total of $27.2M.

Filing fifth is Sony Affirm’s Soul on Fire at 1,720 with a Friday of $1.4M for a 3-day of $2.5M-$3M.

Ideally in regards to the overall marketplace, it’s glowing and clear when the 3-days of your Columbus Day frame cracks $100M, but it’s clear we won’t have that this weekend. Post Covid, the second weekend of October posted its best in 2023 when all movies totaled $132.9M per Box Office Mojo thanks to the opening of Taylor Swift: Eras Tour. Even if Taylor Swift: Showgirl was around this weekend, yeah, sure, it would’ve dropped, but it would have still provided some more depth to the weekend box office.

FRIDAY AM: Disney is reporting that Tron: Ares previews are coming in at $4.8 million. That includes confined Wednesday early shows and previews that began Thursday at 2 p.m.

Knock on wood this one opens to its tracking, meaning north of $40M; we don’t need any movies underperforming. The fall, though ahead of last year by 2% at around $674M, is OK but not energetic with myriad starry adult movies such as Dwayne Johnson’s The Smashing Machine and Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey not working. The male-heavy Tron: Ares faces competition from MLB playoffs this weekend as well as NFL. Good news: The pic’s Rotten Tomatoes audience score stands at 86%, better than the previous installment, 2010’s Tron: Legacy, which did 64% fresh.

Tron: Ares previews certainly are ahead of Tron: Legacy‘s preview cash, which was $3.6M, but that was back in the era of the midnight preview. Right now, it’s look like Tron: Ares will file under such fanboy reboots as last year’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($6.6M total previews) and Alien: Romulus ($6.5M). It’s also under that of Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes ($5.8M). Advance ticket sales we told you for Tron: Ares were at $7M, on par with Alien: Romulus, which opened to $42M. Songbirds & Snakes bowed to $45M.

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Previews for the Joachim Rønning-directed movie movie are ahead of The Equalizer 3, which yielded a $3.8M preview and a $35M three-day opening in 2023. Tron: Ares, produced by its star Jared Leto and former Disney Head of Production Sean Bailey, cost $180M before P&A.

Miramax and Paramount’s Channing Tatum-Kirsten Dunst romance caper Roofman collected $1M from 2,800 locations Thursday. Showtimes started at 7 p.m. Audiences gave the pic 4 out of 5 stars on PostTrak. No audience score yet, but reviews are at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $19M production goes wide today at 3,362 sites. Tatum’s Dog did $1.26M in Valentine’s Day sneaks and previews before earning a $5M Friday and $14.8M 3-day driven by his female audience. However that movie was PG-13, and Roofman is rated R. The 3-day on Roofman is around $10M.

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Sony/Affirm’s Soul on Fire made $575,000 from showtimes that began at 4 p.m. at 1,450 sites. The film received an A CinemaScore and 5-star PostTrak rating. The movie is from Soul Surfer filmmaker Sean McNamara. Logline for faith-based film: After suffering an accident, a juvenile boy ends up relying on his family, his faith and his community in his fight for survival.

Here’s the rest of the top 5 for the week

1) Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl (AMC) Wk $34M/Wk 1 (remember, it didn’t play the weekdays)

2) One Battle After Another (WB) 3,634 theaters, Thu $1M (-22%) Wk $16.2M (-49%), Total $47.8M/Wk 2

3) The Smashing Machine (A24) 3,345 theaters, Thu $316K (-34%), Wk $7.7M/Wk 1

4) Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie (Uni) 3,507 theaters, Thu $298K (-1%), Wk $6.6M (-60%)/Total $23M/Wk 2

5) The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL/WB) 2,753 theaters, Thu $370K (-3%), WK $5.76M (-37%), Total $169.5M/Wk 5

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