Why ‘Anora’ Is Now the Oscar Frontrunner for Best Picture

What a difference a few days makes. Coming into the most pivotal week of Oscar season so far, neither strategists nor pundits nor, really, anyone else in the industry had a clue as to what was about to reveal itself as the frontrunner. Presumptive leader Emilia Pérez had, barring a campaign miracle, been effectively taken out of contention for the top award after a damaging scandal that only got worse. The rest of the top tier all seemed to be missing some key ingredient on the road to the top Oscar: The Brutalist’s cast was snubbed by SAG, Conclave’s director was snubbed by the Academy, Wicked’s director and writers were snubbed by the Academy, and A Complete Unknown still lacked in passionate critical support.

Well, and then there was Anora—the film that had emerged by this point as the complete package, but hadn’t won anything major outside the critics’ circuit since taking the top prize at Cannes, where it premiered in May. The Golden Globes blanked Sean Baker’s movie entirely. Clearly, though, our frontrunner had just been hiding in plain sight. Anora swept this weekend’s top awards—Critics Choice, DGA, and PGA—in a tremendous show of strength. It is exceedingly uncommon for a film to pull off this trifecta and then lose the Oscar. These are huge bodies that demonstrate consensus, a mix of industry voting groups with significant Academy overlap and an organization with no direct ties to the Oscars at all. That their choices all pointed in the same direction speaks volumes, and provides vital clarity for voters wading through the messiest best-picture race in recent memory.

I made the case for Anora (and predicted it for PGA) on last week’s Little Gold Men, but I’d be lying if I said I was confident. The film’s strength lies in its range of appeals: as a daring example of American independent filmmaking, a wildly entertaining comedy, and a work of cinephilia in conversation with generations of classic filmmaking. Getting three chances to make crucial speeches this weekend, Baker used his time to earnestly and movingly advocate for theatrical exhibition, and to highlight his film’s indie bona fides, as a $6 million production that’s gone on to gross more than $36 million worldwide. “We shot on film, we shot in New York City,” he said at the Critics Choice Awards. “[We] put every dollar up on that screen. Independent film—we have to go for it, to stay on the big screen.”

It’s a potent message in a strange year for the industry, as Los Angeles just begins its recovery from last month’s devastating wildfires and the specialty box-office continues to face its challenges. The Brutalist has been making a similar pitch as Anora—and is similarly succeeding in its theatrical run—but the latter has had more time to both be seen and make its argument. It helps that Anora is a slightly easier sell, as a astute, sexy comedy whose emotional gut-punch sneaks up on you. In any case, it feels like the story the industry wants to get behind, as opposed to the more populist options that have certainly found massive audiences—Wicked, Conclave, A Complete Unknown—but are not eliciting the same level of excitement.

Friday’s Critics Choice Awards reminded just how tumultuous this season has been. Anora lost its two seeming best chances at awards to The Substance, which won best screenplay (Coralie Fargeat) and actress (Demi Moore). Wicked’s Jon M. Chu pulled off a shocker in best director; he’s not even nominated at the Oscars. Adrien Brody held on with another best-actor win—the Brutalist star’s path to Oscar is looking smoother—while Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña affirmed their leads in the supporting races. By the end of the night, Anora didn’t seem to be much in the running. Baker’s sense of awe as he walked up to the stage for best picture indicated genuine shock.

The next evening, DGA and PGA pulled double-duty. DGA went first, and as the feature-film nominees were announced, Anora clearly pulled ahead in the applause department. Also faring well in that regard: Nickel Boys’ RaMell Ross, who won the first-time theatrical feature award; he’s up for best screenplay at the Oscars, and the movie is nominated for best picture. Top Oscar acting contenders like Ralph Fiennes, Madison, Brody, and Moore all presented, and while Fiennes gave the best speech of the night, Moore was met with deafening cheers—the support for her candidacy may be too forceful even for Anora fever to stop.

The love for Anora in the room, though, was clamorous and clear. Multiple DGA members I spoke with inside told me they voted for it. A few others in attendance were at a post-screening Q&A that I moderated in Hollywood just after the Oscar nominations. When I’d asked that ecstatic, packed house who hadn’t yet seen the movie, the extensive majority raised their hands. It’s worth noting that DGA voting just closed over the weekend; this film is still being discovered and finding modern fans. Its position is strengthening at the perfect moment.